Wind power is the conversion of
wind energy into a useful form of energy, such as using
wind turbines to make electricity,
wind mills for mechanical power,
wind pumps for pumping water or drainage, or sails to propel ships.
At the end of 2009, worldwide
nameplate capacity of wind-powered generators was 159.2
gigawatts (GW).
[1] Energy production was 340 TWh, which is about 2% of worldwide electricity usage;
[1][2] and has doubled in the past three years. Several countries have achieved relatively high levels of wind power penetration (with large governmental subsidies), such as 20% of stationary electricity production in
Denmark, 14% in
Ireland[3] and
Portugal, 11% in
Spain, and 8% in
Germany in 2009.
[4] As of May 2009, 80 countries around the world are using wind power on a commercial basis.
[2]
Large-scale
wind farms are connected to the
electric power transmission network; smaller facilities are used to provide electricity to isolated locations. Utility companies increasingly
buy back surplus electricity produced by small domestic turbines. Wind energy, as an alternative to
fossil fuels, is plentiful,
renewable, widely distributed, clean, and produces no
greenhouse gas emissions during operation. However, the construction of wind farms is not universally welcomed because of their visual impact and other
effects on the environment.
Wind power is
non-dispatchable, meaning that for economic operation, all of the available output must be taken when it is available. Other resources, such as
hydropower, and
load management techniques must be used to match supply with demand. The
intermittency of wind seldom creates problems when using wind power to supply a low proportion of total demand, but as the proportion rises, problems are created such as increased costs, the need to upgrade the grid, and a lowered ability to supplant conventional production.
[5][6][7] Power management techniques such as exporting excess power to neighboring areas or reducing demand when wind production is low, can mitigate these problems.
History
Main article: History of wind power
Medieval depiction of a windmill
Windmills are typically installed in favourable windy locations. In the image, wind power
generators in Spain near an
Osborne bullHumans have been using wind power for at least 5,500 years to propel sailboats and sailing ships.
Windmills have been used for irrigation pumping and for milling grain since the 7th century AD in what is now
Afghanistan,
Iran and
Pakistan.
In the United States, the development of the
"water-pumping windmill" was the major factor in allowing the farming and ranching of vast areas otherwise devoid of readily accessible water. Windpumps contributed to the expansion of rail transport systems throughout the world, by pumping water from water wells for the
steam locomotives.
[8] The multi-bladed wind turbine atop a lattice tower made of wood or steel was, for many years, a fixture of the landscape throughout rural America. When fitted with generators and battery banks, small wind machines provided electricity to isolated farms.
In July 1887, a Scottish academic,
Professor James Blyth, undertook wind power experiments that culminated in a UK patent in 1891.
[9] In the United States,
Charles F. Brush produced electricity using a wind powered machine, starting in the winter of 1887-1888, which powered his home and laboratory until about 1900. In the 1890s, the Danish scientist and inventor
Poul la Cour constructed wind turbines to generate electricity, which was then used to produce
hydrogen.
[9] These were the first of what was to become the modern form of wind turbine.
Small wind turbines for lighting of isolated rural buildings were widespread in the first part of the 20th century. Larger units intended for connection to a distribution network were tried at several locations including
Balaklava USSR in 1931 and in a 1.25
megawatt (MW)
experimental unit in Vermont in 1941.
The modern
wind power industry began in 1979 with the serial production of wind turbines by Danish manufacturers Kuriant,
Vestas,
Nordtank, and
Bonus. These early turbines were small by today's standards, with capacities of 20–30 kW each. Since then, they have increased greatly in size, with the Enercon E-126 capable of delivering up to 7 MW, while wind turbine production has expanded to many countries.
Wind energy
Further information: Wind
Distribution of wind speed (red) and energy (blue) for all of 2002 at the Lee Ranch facility in Colorado. The histogram shows measured data, while the curve is the Rayleigh model distribution for the same average wind speed. Energy is the Betz limit through a 100 m (328 ft) diameter circle facing directly into the wind. Total energy for the year through that circle was 15.4
gigawatt-hours (GW·h).
The Earth is unevenly heated by the sun, such that the poles receive less energy from the sun than the equator; along with this, dry land heats up (and cools down) more quickly than the seas do. The differential heating drives a global
atmospheric convection system reaching from the Earth's surface to the
stratosphere which acts as a virtual ceiling. Most of the energy stored in these wind movements can be found at high altitudes where continuous wind speeds of over 160 km/h (99 mph) occur. Eventually, the wind energy is converted through friction into diffuse heat throughout the Earth's surface and the atmosphere.
The total amount of economically extractable power available from the wind is considerably more than present human power use from all sources.
[10] An estimated 72
terawatt (TW) of wind power on the Earth potentially can be commercially viable,
[11] compared to about
15 TW average global power consumption from all sources in 2005. Not all the energy of the wind flowing past a given point can be recovered (see
Betz' law).
Distribution of wind speed
The strength of wind varies, and an average value for a given location does not alone indicate the amount of energy a wind turbine could produce there. To assess the frequency of wind speeds at a particular location, a probability distribution function is often fit to the observed data. Different locations will have different wind speed distributions. The
Weibull model closely mirrors the actual distribution of hourly wind speeds at many locations. The Weibull factor is often close to 2 and therefore a
Rayleigh distribution can be used as a less accurate, but simpler model.
Because so much power is generated by higher wind speed, much of the energy comes in short bursts. The 2002 Lee Ranch sample is telling;
[12] half of the energy available arrived in just 15% of the operating time. The consequence is that wind energy from a particular turbine or wind farm does not have as consistent an output as fuel-fired power plants; utilities that use wind power provide power from starting existing generation for times when the wind is weak thus wind power is primarily a fuel saver rather than a capacity saver. Making wind power more consistent requires that various existing technologies and methods be extended, in particular the use of stronger inter-regional transmission lines to link widely distributed wind farms. Problems of variability are addressed by
grid energy storage,
batteries,
pumped-storage hydroelectricity and
energy demand management.
[13]
Electricity generation
Typical components of a wind turbine (
gearbox, rotor shaft and brake assembly) being lifted into position
In a
wind farm, individual turbines are interconnected with a medium voltage (often 34.5 kV), power collection system and communications network. At a substation, this medium-voltage electric current is increased in voltage with a
transformer for connection to the high voltage
electric power transmission system.
The surplus power produced by domestic microgenerators can, in some jurisdictions, be fed into the network and sold to the utility company, producing a retail credit for the microgenerators' owners to offset their energy costs.
[14][15]Grid management
Induction generators, often used for wind power, require
reactive power for
excitation so
substations used in wind-power collection systems include substantial
capacitor banks for
power factor correction. Different types of wind turbine generators behave differently during transmission grid disturbances, so
extensive modelling of the dynamic electromechanical characteristics of a new wind farm is required by transmission system operators to ensure predictable stable behaviour during system faults (see:
Low voltage ride through). In particular, induction generators cannot support the system voltage during faults, unlike steam or hydro turbine-driven synchronous generators.
Doubly-fed machines generally have more desirable properties for grid interconnection
[citation needed]. Transmission systems operators will supply a wind farm developer with a
grid code to specify the requirements for interconnection to the transmission grid. This will include
power factor, constancy of
frequency and dynamic behaviour of the wind farm turbines during a system fault.
[16][17]
Capacity factor
Worldwide installed capacity 1997–2020 [MW], developments and prognosis. Data source:
WWEASince wind speed is not constant, a
wind farm's annual energy production is never as much as the sum of the generator nameplate ratings multiplied by the total hours in a year. The ratio of actual productivity in a year to this theoretical maximum is called the
capacity factor. Typical capacity factors are 20–40%, with values at the upper end of the range in particularly favourable sites.
[18] For example, a 1 MW turbine with a capacity factor of 35% will not produce 8,760 MW·h in a year (1 × 24 × 365), but only 1 × 0.35 × 24 × 365 = 3,066 MW·h, averaging to 0.35 MW. Online data is available for some locations and the capacity factor can be calculated from the yearly output.
[19][20]
Unlike fueled generating plants, the capacity factor is limited by the inherent properties of wind. Capacity factors of other types of power plant are based mostly on fuel cost, with a small amount of downtime for maintenance.
Nuclear plants have low incremental fuel cost, and so are run at full output and achieve a 90% capacity factor. Plants with higher fuel cost are throttled back to
follow load.
Gas turbine plants using
natural gas as fuel may be very expensive to operate and may be run only to meet
peak power demand. A gas turbine plant may have an annual capacity factor of 5–25% due to relatively high energy production cost.
In a 2008 study released by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, the capacity factor achieved by the wind turbine fleet is shown to be increasing as the technology improves. The capacity factor achieved by new wind turbines in 2004 and 2005 reached 36%.
[21]
Penetration
Wind energy "penetration" refers to the fraction of energy produced by wind compared with the total available generation capacity. There is no generally accepted "maximum" level of wind penetration. The limit for a particular grid will depend on the existing generating plants, pricing mechanisms, capacity for storage or demand management, and other factors. An interconnected electricity grid will already include reserve generating and transmission capacity to allow for equipment failures; this reserve capacity can also serve to regulate for the varying power generation by wind plants. Studies have indicated that 20% of the total electrical energy consumption may be incorporated with minimal difficulty.
[22] These studies have been for locations with geographically dispersed wind farms, some degree of dispatchable energy, or hydropower with storage capacity, demand management, and interconnection to a large grid area export of electricity when needed. Beyond this level, there are few technical limits, but the economic implications become more significant. Electrical utilities continue to study the effects of large (20% or more) scale penetration of wind generation on system stability and economics.
[23][24][25]
[26]
At present, a few grid systems have penetration of wind energy above 5%: Denmark (values over 19%), Spain and Portugal (values over 11%), Germany and the Republic of Ireland (values over 6%). But even with a modest level of penetration, there can be times where wind power provides a substantial percentage of the power on a grid. For example, in the morning hours of 8 November 2009, wind energy produced covered more than half the electricity demand in Spain, setting a new record.
[27] This was an instance where demand was very low but wind power generation was very high.
Wildorado Wind Ranch in
Oldham County in the
Texas Panhandle, as photographed from
U.S. Route 385The Danish grid is heavily interconnected to the European electrical grid, and it has solved grid management problems by exporting almost half of its wind power to Norway. The correlation between electricity export and wind power production is very strong.
[28]
Intermittency and penetration limits
- Main article: Intermittent Power Sources. See also: Wind Power Forecasting.
Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: from hour to hour, daily, and seasonally. Annual variation also exists, but is not as significant. Related to variability is the short-term (hourly or daily) predictability of wind plant output. Like other electricity sources, wind energy must be "scheduled". Wind power forecasting methods are used, but predictability of wind plant output remains low for short-term operation.
Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, this variability can present substantial challenges to incorporating large amounts of wind power into a grid system.
Intermittency and the non-
dispatchable nature of wind energy production can raise costs for regulation, incremental
operating reserve, and (at high penetration levels) could require an increase in the already existing
energy demand management,
load shedding, or storage solutions or system interconnection with
HVDC cables. At low levels of wind penetration, fluctuations in load and allowance for failure of large generating units requires reserve capacity that can also regulate for variability of wind generation. Wind power can be replaced by other power stations during low wind periods. Transmission networks must already cope with outages of generation plant and daily changes in electrical demand. Systems with large wind capacity components may need more spinning reserve (plants operating at less than full load).
[29][30]
Pumped-storage hydroelectricity or other forms of
grid energy storage can store energy developed by high-wind periods and release it when needed.
[31] Stored energy increases the economic value of wind energy since it can be shifted to displace higher cost generation during peak demand periods. The potential revenue from this
arbitrage can offset the cost and losses of storage; the cost of storage may add 25% to the cost of any wind energy stored, but it is not envisaged that this would apply to a large proportion of wind energy generated. The 2 GW Dinorwig pumped storage plant in Wales evens out electrical demand peaks, and allows base-load suppliers to run their plant more efficiently. Although pumped storage power systems are only about 75% efficient, and have high installation costs, their low running costs and ability to reduce the required electrical base-load can save both fuel and total electrical generation costs.
[32][33]
In particular geographic regions, peak wind speeds may not coincide with peak demand for electrical power. In the US states of
California and
Texas, for example, hot days in summer may have low wind speed and high electrical demand due to
air conditioning. Some utilities subsidize the purchase of
geothermal heat pumps by their customers, to reduce electricity demand during the summer months by making air conditioning up to 70% more efficient;
[34] widespread adoption of this technology would better match electricity demand to wind availability in areas with hot summers and low summer winds. Another option is to interconnect widely dispersed geographic areas with an HVDC "
Super grid". In the USA it is estimated that to upgrade the transmission system to take in planned or potential renewables would cost at least $60 billion.
[35]
In the UK, demand for electricity is higher in winter than in summer, and so are wind speeds.
[36][37] Solar power tends to be complementary to wind.
[38][39] On daily to weekly timescales,
high pressure areas tend to bring clear skies and low surface winds, whereas
low pressure areas tend to be windier and cloudier. On seasonal timescales, solar energy typically peaks in summer, whereas in many areas wind energy is lower in summer and higher in winter.
[40] Thus the intermittencies of wind and solar power tend to cancel each other somewhat. A demonstration project at the
Massachusetts Maritime Academy shows the effect.
[41] The Institute for Solar Energy Supply Technology of the
University of Kassel pilot-tested a
combined power plant linking solar, wind,
biogas and
hydrostorage to provide load-following power around the clock, entirely from renewable sources.
[42]
A report on Denmark's wind power noted that their wind power network provided less than 1% of average demand 54 days during the year 2002.
[43] Wind power advocates argue that these periods of low wind can be dealt with by simply restarting existing power stations that have been held in readiness or interlinking with HVDC.
[44] Electrical grids with slow-responding thermal power plants and without ties to networks with hydroelectric generation may have to limit the use of wind power.
[43]
Three reports on the wind variability in the UK issued in 2009, generally agree that variability of wind needs to be taken into account, but it does not make the grid unmanageable; and the additional costs, which are modest, can be quantified.
[45]
A 2006
International Energy Agency forum presented costs for managing intermittency as a function of wind-energy's share of total capacity for several countries, as shown:
Increase in system operation costs, Euros per MW·h, for 10% and 20% wind share[6]
| 10% | 20% |
|---|
| Germany | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| Denmark | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Finland | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| Norway | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Sweden | 0.3 | 0.7 |
Capacity credit and fuel saving
Many commentators concentrate on whether or not wind has any "capacity credit" without defining what they mean by this and its relevance. Wind does have a capacity credit, using a widely accepted and meaningful definition, equal to about 20% of its rated output (but this figure varies depending on actual circumstances). This means that reserve capacity on a system equal in MW to 20% of added wind could be retired when such wind is added without affecting system security or robustness. But the precise value is irrelevant since the main value of wind (in the UK, worth 5 times the capacity credit value
[46]) is its fuel and CO2 savings.
According to a 2007 Stanford University study published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, interconnecting ten or more wind farms can allow an average of 33% of the total energy produced to be used as reliable,
baseload electric power, as long as minimum criteria are met for wind speed and turbine height.
[47][48]
Installation placement
Main article: Wind farm
See also: Wind atlas
Good selection of a wind turbine site is critical to economic development of wind power. Aside from the availability of wind itself, other factors include the availability of transmission lines, value of energy to be produced, cost of land acquisition, land use considerations, and environmental impact of construction and operations.
Off-shore locations may offset their higher construction cost with higher annual load factors, thereby reducing cost of energy produced. Wind farm designers use specialized
wind energy software applications to evaluate the impact of these issues on a given wind farm design.
[citation needed]
Wind power density (WPD) is a calculation of the effective power of the wind at a particular location.
[49] A map showing the distribution of wind power density is a first step in identifying possible locations for wind turbines. In the United States, the
National Renewable Energy Laboratory classifies wind power density into ascending classes. The larger the WPD at a location, the higher it is rated by class. Wind power classes 3 (300–400 W/m
2 at 50 m altitude) to 7 (800–2000 W/m
2 at 50 m altitude) are generally considered suitable for wind power development.
[citation needed] There are 625,000 km
2 in the contiguous United States that have class 3 or higher wind resources and which are within 10 km of electric transmission lines. If this area is fully utilized for wind power, it would produce power at the average continuous equivalent rate of 734 GW
e.
[citation needed] For comparison, in 2007 the US consumed electricity at an average rate of 474 GW,
[50] from a total generating capacity of 1,088 GW.
[51]
Wind power usage
There are now many thousands of wind turbines operating, with a total nameplate capacity of 157,899 MW of which wind power in Europe accounts for 48% (2009). World wind generation capacity more than quadrupled between 2000 and 2006, doubling about every three years. 81% of wind power installations are in the US and Europe. The share of the top five countries in terms of new installations fell from 71% in 2004 to 62% in 2006, but climbed to 73% by 2008 as those countries — the United States, Germany, Spain, China, and India — have seen substantial capacity growth in the past two years (see chart).
The World Wind Energy Association forecast that, by 2010, over 200 GW of capacity would have been installed worldwide,
[55] up from 73.9 GW at the end of 2006, implying an anticipated net growth rate of more than 28% per year.
Wind accounts for nearly one-fifth of electricity generated
in Denmark — the highest percentage of any country — and it is tenth in the world in total wind power generation. Denmark is prominent in the manufacturing and use of wind turbines, with a commitment made in the 1970s to eventually produce half of the country's power by wind.
[citation needed]
In recent years,
the US has added substantial amounts of wind power generation capacity, growing from just over 6 GW at the end of 2004 to over 35 GW at the end of 2009.
[4] The U.S. is currently the world's leader in wind power generation capacity. The country as a whole generates just 2.4% of its electrical power from wind, but several states generate substantial amounts of wind power.
[4] Texas is the state with the largest amount of generation capacity with 9,410 MW installed.
[4] This would have ranked it sixth in the world if Texas was a separate country.
Iowa is the state with the highest percentage of wind generation, at 14.2% in 2009.
[56] California was one of the incubators of the modern wind power industry, and led the U.S. in installed capacity for many years. As of mid-2010, fourteen U..S. states had wind power generation capacities in excess of 1000 MW.
[4] U.S. Department of Energy studies have concluded that wind from the
Great Plains states of Texas, Kansas, and North Dakota could provide enough electricity to power the entire nation, and that offshore wind farms could do the same job.
[57][58]
China had originally set a generating target of 30,000 MW by 2020 from renewable energy sources, but reached 22,500 MW by end of 2009 and could easily surpass 30,000 MW by end of 2010. Indigenous wind power could generate up to 253,000 MW.
[59] A Chinese renewable energy law was adopted in November 2004, following the World Wind Energy Conference organized by the Chinese and the World Wind Energy Association. By 2008, wind power was growing faster in China than the government had planned, and indeed faster in percentage terms than in any other large country, having more than doubled each year since 2005. Policymakers doubled their wind power prediction for 2010, after the wind industry reached the original goal of 5 GW three years ahead of schedule.
[60] Current trends suggest an actual installed capacity near 20 GW by 2010, with China shortly thereafter pursuing the United States for the world wind power lead.
[60]
India ranks 5th in the world with a total wind power capacity of 10,925 MW in 2009,
[1] or 3% of all electricity produced in India. The World Wind Energy Conference in New Delhi in November 2006 has given additional impetus to the Indian wind industry.
[61] Muppandal village in
Tamil Nadu state,
India, has several wind turbine farms in its vicinity, and is one of the major wind energy harnessing centres in India led by majors like
Suzlon,
Vestas,
Micon among others.
[62][63]
Mexico recently opened
La Venta II wind power project as a step toward reducing Mexico's consumption of fossil fuels. The 88 MW project is the first of its kind in Mexico, and will provide 13 percent of the electricity needs of the state of
Oaxaca. By 2012 the project will have a capacity of 3,500 MW. In May 2010, Sempra Energy announced it would build a wind farm in
Baja California, with a capacity of at least 1,000 MW, at a cost of $5.5 billion.
[64]
Another growing market is
Brazil, with a wind potential of 143 GW.
[65]
South Africa has a proposed station situated on the West Coast north of the Olifants River mouth near the town of Koekenaap, east of Vredendal in the Western Cape province. The station is proposed to have a total output of 100 MW although there are negotiations to double this capacity. The plant could be operational by 2010.
France has announced a target of 12,500 MW installed by 2010, though their installation trends over the past few years suggest they'll fall well short of their goal.
Canada experienced rapid growth of wind capacity between 2000 and 2006, with total installed capacity increasing from 137 MW to 1,451 MW, and showing an annual growth rate of 38%.
[66] Particularly rapid growth was seen in 2006, with total capacity doubling from the 684 MW at end-2005.
[67] This growth was fed by measures including installation targets, economic incentives and political support. For example, the
Ontario government announced that it will introduce a feed-in tariff for wind power, referred to as 'Standard Offer Contracts', which may boost the wind industry across the province.
[68] In
Quebec, the
provincially owned electric utility plans to purchase an additional 2000 MW by 2013.
[69] By 2025, Canada will reach its capacity of 55,000 MW of wind energy, or 20% of the country's energy needs.
Power analysis
Due to ever increasing sizes of turbines which hit maximum power at lower speeds
[81] energy produced has been rising faster than nameplate power capacity. Energy more than doubled between 2006 and 2008 in the table above, yet nameplate capacity (table on left) grew by 63% in the same period.
Small-scale wind power
Further information: Microgeneration
This wind turbine charges a 12 V
battery to run 12 V appliances.
is the name given to wind generation systems with the capacity to produce up to 50 kW of electrical power.
[82] Isolated communities, that may otherwise rely on
diesel generators may use wind turbines to displace diesel fuel consumption. Individuals may purchase these systems to reduce or eliminate their dependence on grid electricity for economic or other reasons, or to reduce their
carbon footprint. Wind turbines have been used for household electricity generation in conjunction with
battery storage over many decades in remote areas.
Grid-connected wind turbines may use
grid energy storage, displacing purchased energy with local production when available. Off-grid system users can either adapt to intermittent power or use batteries,
photovoltaic or diesel systems to supplement the wind turbine. Equipment such as parking meters or wireless Internet gateways may be powered by a wind turbine that charges a small battery, replacing the need for a connection to the power grid.
In locations near or around a group of high-rise buildings, wind shear generates areas of intense turbulence, especially at street-level.
[83] The risks associated with mechanical or catastrophic failure have thus plagued urban wind development in densely populated areas,
[84] rendering the costs of insuring urban wind systems prohibitive.
[85] Moreover, quantifying the amount of wind in urban areas has been difficult, as little is known about the actual wind resources of towns and cities.
[86]
A new
Carbon Trust study into the potential of small-scale wind energy has found that small wind turbines could provide up to 1.5 terawatt hours (TW·h) per year of electricity (0.4% of total UK electricity consumption), saving 0.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (Mt CO
2) emission savings. This is based on the assumption that 10% of households would install turbines at costs competitive with grid electricity, around 12 pence (US 19 cents) a kW·h.
[87]
Distributed generation from
renewable resources is increasing as a consequence of the increased awareness of
climate change. The electronic interfaces required to connect renewable generation units with the
utility system can include additional functions, such as the active filtering to enhance the power quality.
[88]
Economics and feasibility
Windmill with rotating sails
Relative cost of electricity by generation source
See also: Relative cost of electricity generated by different sources
Growth and cost trends
Wind power has negligible fuel costs, but a high capital cost. The estimated
average cost per unit incorporates the cost of construction of the turbine and transmission facilities, borrowed funds, return to investors (including cost of risk), estimated annual production, and other components, averaged over the projected useful life of the equipment, which may be in excess of twenty years. Energy cost estimates are highly dependent on these assumptions so published cost figures can differ substantially. A British Wind Energy Association report gives an average generation cost of onshore wind power of around 3.2 pence (between US 5 and 6 cents) per kW·h (2005).
[89] Cost per unit of energy produced was estimated in 2006 to be comparable to the cost of new generating capacity in the US for coal and natural gas: wind cost was estimated at $55.80 per MW·h, coal at $53.10/MW·h and natural gas at $52.50.
[90] Other sources in various studies have estimated wind to be more expensive than other sources (see
Economics of new nuclear power plants,
Clean coal, and
Carbon capture and storage). A 2009 study on wind power in Spain by the
Universidad Rey Juan Carlos concluded that each installed MW of wind power destroyed 4.27 jobs, by raising energy costs and driving away electricity-intensive businesses.
[91] However, the presence of wind energy, even when subsidised, can reduce costs for consumers (€5 billion/yr in Germany) by reducing the marginal price by minimising the use of expensive 'peaker plants'.
[92]
In 2004, wind energy cost a fifth of what it did in the 1980s, and some expected that downward trend to continue as larger multi-megawatt
turbines were mass-produced.
[93] However, installed cost averaged €1,300 a kW in 2007,
[94][not in citation given] compared to €1,100 a kW in 2005.
[95][clarification needed] Not as many facilities can produce large modern turbines and their towers and foundations, so constraints develop in the supply of turbines resulting in higher costs.
[96]
Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) figures show that 2007 recorded an increase of installed capacity of 20 GW, taking the total installed wind energy capacity to 94 GW, up from 74 GW in 2006. Despite constraints facing supply chains for wind turbines, the annual market for wind continued to increase at an estimated rate of 37%, following 32% growth in 2006. In terms of economic value, the wind energy sector has become one of the important players in the energy markets, with the total value of new generating equipment installed in 2007 reaching €25 billion, or US$36 billion.
[94]
Although the
wind power industry will be impacted by the
global financial crisis in 2009 and 2010, a
BTM Consult five year forecast up to 2013 projects substantial growth. Over the past five years the average growth in new installations has been 27.6 percent each year. In the forecast to 2013 the expected average annual growth rate is 15.7 percent.
[97][98] More than 200 GW of new wind power capacity could come on line before the end of 2013. Wind power market penetration is expected to reach 3.35 percent by 2013 and 8 percent by 2018.
[97][98]
Existing generation capacity represents
sunk costs, and the decision to continue production will depend on marginal costs going forward, not estimated average costs at project inception. For example, the estimated cost of new wind power capacity may be lower than that for "new coal" (estimated average costs for new generation capacity) but higher than for "old coal" (marginal cost of production for existing capacity). Therefore, the choice to increase wind capacity will depend on factors including the profile of existing generation capacity.
Theoretical potential - World
Map of available wind power for the
United States. Color codes indicate wind power density class.
Wind power available in the
atmosphere is much greater than current world energy consumption. The most comprehensive study As of 2005
[update][99] found the potential of wind power on land and near-shore to be 72 TW, equivalent to 54,000
MToE (million tons of oil equivalent) per year, or over five times the world's current energy use in all forms. The potential takes into account only locations with mean annual wind speeds ≥ 6.9 m/s at 80 m. The study assumes six 1.5 megawatt, 77 m diameter turbines per square kilometer on roughly 13% of the total global land area (though that land would also be available for other compatible uses such as farming). The authors acknowledge that many practical barriers would need to be overcome to reach this theoretical capacity.
The practical limit to exploitation of wind power will be set by economic and environmental factors, since the resource available is far larger than any practical means to develop it.
Theoretical potential - UK
A recent estimate gives the total potential average output for UK for various depth and distance from the coast. The maximum case considered was beyond 200 km from shore and in depths of 100 – 700 m (necessitating
floating wind turbines) and this gave an average resource of 2,000 GWe which is to be compared with the average UK demand of about 40 GWe.
[100]
Direct costs
Many potential sites for wind farms are far from demand centres, requiring substantially more money to construct new transmission lines and substations. In some regions this is partly because frequent strong winds themselves have discouraged dense human settlement in especially windy areas. The wind which was historically a nuisance is now becoming a valuable resource, but it may be far from large populations which developed in areas more sheltered from wind.
Since the primary cost of producing wind energy is construction and there are no fuel costs, the average cost of wind energy per unit of production depends on a few key assumptions, such as the cost of capital and years of assumed service. The
marginal cost of wind energy once a plant is constructed is usually less than 1 cent per kW·h.
[101] Since the
cost of capital plays a large part in projected cost, risk (as perceived by investors) will affect projected costs per unit of electricity.
The commercial viability of wind power also depends on the price paid to power producers. Electricity prices are highly regulated worldwide, and in many locations may not reflect the full cost of production, let alone indirect subsidies or negative externalities. Customers may enter into long-term pricing contracts for wind to reduce the risk of future pricing changes, thereby ensuring more stable returns for projects at the development stage. These may take the form of standard offer contracts, whereby the system operator undertakes to purchase power from wind at a fixed price for a certain period (perhaps up to a limit); these prices may be different than purchase prices from other sources, and even incorporate an implicit subsidy.
Where the price for electricity is based on market mechanisms, revenue for all producers per unit is higher when their production coincides with periods of higher prices. The profitability of wind farms will therefore be higher if their production schedule coincides with these periods. If wind represents a significant portion of supply, average revenue per unit of production may be lower as more expensive and less-efficient forms of generation, which typically set revenue levels, are displaced from
economic dispatch.
[citation needed] This may be of particular concern if the output of many wind plants in a market have strong temporal correlation. In economic terms, the
marginal revenue of the wind sector as penetration increases may diminish.
External costs
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Most forms of energy production create some form of
negative externality: costs that are not paid by the producer or consumer of the good. For electric production, the most significant externality is
pollution, which imposes social costs in increased health expenses, reduced agricultural productivity, and other problems. In addition,
carbon dioxide, a
greenhouse gas produced when fossil fuels are burned, may impose even greater costs in the form of
global warming. Few mechanisms currently exist to
internalise these costs, and the total cost is highly uncertain. Other significant externalities can include military expenditures to ensure access to fossil fuels, remediation of polluted sites, destruction of wild habitat, loss of scenery/tourism, etc.
If the external costs are taken into account, wind energy can be competitive in more cases, as costs have generally decreased because of technology development and scale enlargement. Supporters argue that, once external costs and subsidies to other forms of electrical production are accounted for, wind energy is amongst the least costly forms of electrical production. Critics argue that the level of required subsidies, the small amount of energy needs met, the expense of transmission lines to connect the wind farms to population centers, and the uncertain financial returns to wind projects make it inferior to other energy sources. Intermittency and other characteristics of wind energy also have costs that may rise with higher levels of penetration, and may change the cost-benefit ratio.
Incentives
Some of the over 6,000 wind turbines at
Altamont Pass, in California, United States. Developed during a period of tax incentives in the 1980s, this wind farm has more turbines than any other in the United States.
[102]Wind energy in many jurisdictions receives some financial or other support to encourage its development. Wind energy benefits from
subsidies in many jurisdictions, either to increase its attractiveness, or to compensate for subsidies received by other forms of production which have significant negative externalities.
In the United States, wind power receives a tax credit for each kW·h produced; at 1.9 cents per kW·h in 2006, the credit has a yearly inflationary adjustment. Another tax benefit is
accelerated depreciation. Many American states also provide incentives, such as exemption from property tax, mandated purchases, and additional markets for "
green credits". Countries such as
Canada and
Germany also provide incentives for wind turbine construction, such as tax credits or minimum purchase prices for wind generation, with assured grid access (sometimes referred to as
feed-in tariffs). These feed-in tariffs are typically set well above average electricity prices. The
Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 contains extensions of credits for wind, including microturbines.
Secondary market forces also provide incentives for businesses to use wind-generated power, even if there is a
premium price for the electricity. For example,
socially responsible manufacturers pay utility companies a premium that goes to subsidize and build new wind power infrastructure. Companies use wind-generated power, and in return they can claim that they are making a powerful "green" effort. In the USA the organization Green-e monitors business compliance with these renewable energy credits.
[103]
Full costs and lobbying
Commenting on the
EU's 2020 renewable energy target, Helm (2009) is critical of how the costs of wind power are citied by lobbyists:
[104]
For those with an economic interest in capturing as much of the climate-change pork barrel as possible, there are two ways of presenting the costs [of wind power] in a favourable light: first, define the cost base as narrowly as possible; and, second, assume that the costs will fall over time with R&D and large-scale deployment. And, for good measure, when considering the alternatives, go for a wider cost base (for example, focusing on the full fuel-cycle costs of nuclear and coal-mining for coal generation) and assume that these technologies are mature, and even that costs might rise (for example, invoking the peak oil hypothesis).
A
House of Lords Select Committee report (2008) on renewable energy in the
UK says:
[105]
We have a particular concern over the prospective role of wind generated and other intermittent sources of electricity in the UK, in the absence of a break-through in electricity storage technology or the integration of the UK grid with that of continental Europe. Wind generation offers the most readily available short-term enhancement in renewable electricity and its base cost is relatively cheap. Yet the evidence presented to us implies that the full costs of wind generation (allowing for intermittency, back-up conventional plant and grid connection), although declining over time, remain significantly higher than those of conventional or nuclear generation (even before allowing for support costs and the environmental impacts of wind farms). Furthermore, the evidence suggests that the capacity credit of wind power (its probable power output at the time of need) is very low; so it cannot be relied upon to meet peak demand. Thus wind generation needs to be viewed largely as additional capacity to that which will need to be provided, in any event, by more reliable means
Helm (2009) says that wind's problem of intermittent supply will probably lead to another
dash-for-gas or dash-for-coal in Europe, possibly with a negative impact on
energy security.
[104]
In the United States, the wind power industry has recently increased its lobbying efforts considerably, spending about $5 million in 2009 after years of relative obscurity in Washington.
[106]
Environmental effects
Main article: Environmental effects of wind power
Livestock ignore wind turbines,
[107] and continue to graze as they did before wind turbines were installed.
Compared to the environmental effects of traditional energy sources, the environmental effects of wind power are relatively minor. Wind power consumes no fuel, and emits no
air pollution, unlike fossil fuel power sources. The energy consumed to manufacture and transport the materials used to build a wind power plant is equal to the new energy produced by the plant within a few months of operation.
[108][109] Garrett Gross, a scientist from
UMKC in Kansas City, Missouri states, "The impact made on the environment is very little when compared to what is gained." The initial carbon dioxide emission from energy used in the installation is "paid back" within about 2.5 years of operation for offshore turbines.
[110]
Danger to birds and bats has been a concern in some locations. American Bird Conservancy cites studies that indicate that about 10,000 - 40,000 birds die each year from collisions with wind turbines in the U.S. and say that number may rise substantially as wind capacity increases in the absence of mandatory guidelines.
[111] However, studies show that the number of birds killed by wind turbines is very low compared to the number of those that die as a result of certain other ways of generating electricity and especially of the environmental impacts of using
non-clean power sources. Fossil fuel generation kills around twenty times as many birds per unit of energy produced than wind-farms.
[112] Bat species appear to be at risk during key movement periods. Almost nothing is known about current populations of these species and the impact on bat numbers as a result of mortality at windpower locations. Offshore wind sites 10 km or more from shore do not interact with bat populations. While a
wind farm may cover a large area of land, many land uses such as agriculture are compatible, with only small areas of turbine foundations and infrastructure made unavailable for use.
Aesthetics have also been an issue. In the USA, the Massachusetts
Cape Wind project was delayed for years mainly because of aesthetic concerns. In the UK, repeated opinion surveys have shown that more than 70% of people either like, or do not mind, the visual impact. According to a town councillor in
Ardrossan, Scotland, the overwhelming majority of locals believe that the
Ardrossan Wind Farm has enhanced the area, saying that the turbines are impressive looking and bring a calming effect to the town.
[113]
Noise has also been an issue. In the United States, law suits and complaints have been filed in several states, citing noise, vibrations and resulting lost property values in homes and businesses located close to industrial wind turbines.
[114] With careful implanting of the wind turbines, along with use of noise reducing-modifications for the wind turbines however, these issues can be addressed.
Contribution of information from wikipedia
The idea would be to do a full accounting of how much carbon you could store in a fully populated stock of fish or whales 
